Free Picks: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds

Everyone knew how strong St. Louis’ offense would be. After dropping 11 runs (6 in the first inning) against Cincinnati Opening Day, the Cardinals put the NL Central on watch. Now out for revenge, can the Reds knock the Cardinals off their high horse? Or will St. Louis run away with another victory in Ohio?

We’re only a game into the MLB season for both the Reds and Cards, but St. Louis has already proven how offensively talented they are. Dropping 11 runs on Opening Day is a glimpse into the raw power the Cardinals possess.

Saturday, we will see Adam Wainwright get the start for St. Louis, while Tyler Mahle gets the nod for Cincinnati. Both righties are veterans of the game and are hoping to kick off the 2021 campaign on the right foot.

For this free BetPicks prediction, I want to focus on the run line. With how imposing the Cardinals’ offense is, I think focusing on the redbirds is a smart and educated move.

With that being said, I think the biggest factor in the run line will be the effectiveness of Tyler Mahle. In his short career, Mahle has a career ERA of 4.68 and a WAR of 1.6.

Mahle isn’t considered a deep starter, either. This means that by the 5th and 6th inning, expect Cincinnati to turn to their bullpen. That normally happens during the beginning of the season, but it’s clear that in his career Mahle has not been built for longevity.

Against the Cardinals, it appears as if St. Louis has figured out the right-hander. Last season, Mahle allowed 13 hits in 58 plate appearances. The Cardinals also managed 3 home runs and only 11 strikeouts.

For the visiting Cardinals, Adam Wainwright has been a silent killer of Cincinnati. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that this starting pitching bout has impacted MLB odds. Wainright is a future hall-of-famer taking on a team that is much to be desired.

The Reds’ defense has already been exposed with 2 errors against St. Louis on Opening Day. While they have some beautiful pieces like Luis Castillo, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez, this Reds team is lacking.

I think taking the Cardinals’ run line is a smart move. With Wainwright on the bump, expect him to fan hitters all over Great American Ball Park.

Add in St. Louis’ power hitters like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, and I love the Cards’ run line for this game.

• Wainwright is 2-1 against Cincinnati in last 3 starts.
• Louis has averaged 6.10 runs in last 10 against Cincinnati.
• Mahle has allowed 3 earned runs in 3 straight starts against St. Louis.
• The Reds are 1-4 in last 5 against STL at home.