Free Picks: Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

The Chicago White Sox (63-44) and the Kansas City Royals (45-60) meet up to resume a three-game series on Wednesday in what is the third and final home series for Chicago against Kansas City in 2021. Despite their notably different places in the standings, the season series between these two teams has been surprisingly close: The White Sox are just 8-6 against the Royals so far after losing three of four at Kauffman Stadium last week. Kansas City had been rolling up to that point, but they followed it up by getting swept in a three-game series against Toronto.

Do the Royals have another upset in them?

If you’ve been following baseball at least semi-closely through the season’s first four months, you’ll know that the White Sox are legitimate World Series contenders. They have multiple frontline rotation pieces, a nasty closer and several impact bats that can put a hurt into the opposition with ease.

You may also know that the Royals have very few of those things. Kansas City is also miles from playoff contention. And yet, when they meet Chicago, they win a lot more than you’d expect.

Even with Tuesday’s loss, the Royals have won nearly half (six of 14) of their matchups with the White Sox this season. Kansas City is in for a tough go against Chicago starter Lucas Giolito (8-7, 3.67 ERA) on Wednesday, but we’re going to see if we can make a case for the Royals anyhow.

Why? Because the Royals have impeccable money line value, as +205 underdogs (10Bet) among the day’s MLB picks. The White Sox, who’ve won three of four so far on this homestand, are -263 money line favorites (10Bet).

Giolito is a big part of that, and he’s been on a real heater over his past four starts. In that span, he owns a 1.71 ERA (five earned runs in 26 1/3 innings) and a 2-1 record. That includes six innings of four-hit, one-run ball in a no-decision against Kansas City his last time out (July 28). Two of Giolito’s three outings against the Royals in 2021 have consisted of five-plus innings and just four hits and a run allowed. The other outing, however, involved five runs allowed on five hits and three walks. So at least we know he’s capable of coming undone.

Royals starter Carlos Hernandez (2-1, 4.98) is a bit of a wildcard; only three of his 15 pitching appearances have been starts, and really only one of those three was a redeemable outing. But … can you guess which team saw him at his best? The White Sox.

On July 29, Hernandez threw six scoreless innings against Chicago, striking out four while allowing just four hits and a walk. We really haven’t seen that type of performance from him before, but again, he just happened to do it against the very team he’s about to see again.

With all of that info, we’ll settle our BetPicks prediction somewhere in between these two money line spreads. Consider taking the +1.5 run line on the Royals (+104 at 10Bet), which offers some cushion in case they can’t pull off the upset. If it helps, three of the past six matchups between these teams has been decided but one run.

• Chicago is 5-5 on the money line in its past 10
• The UNDER has cashed in nine of the White Sox’s past 10 games
• Kansas City is 5-5 on the money line in its past 10
• The UNDER has cashed in seven of the Royals’ past 10 games