Free Picks: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns can no longer be considered a fluke at this point. They are overachieving like you wouldn’t believe, and it’s time they’re taken seriously. They showed their crunch time mettle with a tight overtime win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night, and now they get the pleasure of taking on the Philadelphia 76ers, who sit a couple spots above the Bucks in first place in the Eastern Conference.

The Philadelphia 76ers had some issues when Joel Embiid went down with what some thought might be a season-ending injury last month. Thankfully, the ailment was not that serious and Philly’s MVP candidate is back in the mix, leading his squad to a 5-2 straight up record since his return to the lineup a couple of weeks ago.

However, while the Sixers have been having real life success, they have not been treating their spread bettors very nicely. Philly has not been a good NBA pick recently: They have won six of their past nine games, but they only covered the spread in three of those nine.

On the flip side, the Suns have been the epitome of reliability. Not only have they somehow managed to dodge the seemingly league-wide epidemic of star player injuries (knock on wood), but they have also gotten results night in and night out, no matter the circumstances, as evidenced by their gutty OT triumph over the Greek Freak and his boys in their last game.

The Suns have piled up 36 wins against the spread this season, tied for second behind only the resurgent New York Knicks of Tom Thibodeau. That’s a 63 percent success rate for Suns spread bettors this season, which is certainly not too shabby. Phoenix would seem to be prepared for this regularly scheduled contest as well considering their 22-12 ATS mark on normal one days’ rest (third in the NBA) and their 20-10 ATS mark on equal rest (second).

As has often been the case this season, Monty Williams’ desert dwellers are on a hot streak right now. The Suns have won five of their last six and eight of their past 10 games and don’t look like they’ll be cooling down anytime soon. I mean, it is Arizona, right.

Chris Paul has come into this franchise and turned them into a well-oiled and uber-talented machine that is soaring far beyond any expectations anyone outside of Phoenix might have posited before the campaign. It reminds one of the crazy turnaround that Paul led in Oklahoma City last season, but I digress, the greatness of the Point God can be discussed at a later date.

The chasm in terms of quality between the East and West conferences is as big as it has ever been, with the West enjoying a sizable advantage in terms of all-around quality if not in title contenders. This season, the Suns have won three of their four matchups with the East’s so-called big three of Philly, Milwaukee, and the Brooklyn Nets.

The Sixers have had a bit more trouble against their Western Conference counterparts: Doc Rivers’ group has dropped seven of 11 contests against the West’s top six sides. Philly’s recent struggles at Wells Fargo—0-5 ATS in their last five at home—add to our feeling that the Suns are one of the best bets for today. We’re taking Phoenix’s moneyline at solid -111 NBA odds as our top pick for this interconference clash of titans.

• Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
• Phoenix has covered the spread in 6 of the past 8 meetings in Philadelphia
• Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 at Wells Fargo
• Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference