Free Picks: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors

The last time these two teams met, Steph Curry went for a career and franchise-high 62 points in a win for the Golden State Warriors, and while we’re not expecting the same thing to happen in this rematch, we do expect the stars to come out to play for Wednesday’s ESPN-televised showdown. Curry has had Damian Lillard’s number throughout their careers, so can Dame Time buck the trend and will his team to a win at home in Portland?

The Blazers have been very streaky lately, following up a six-game winning streak with a four-game losing skid before winning their most recent game handily against the Hornets in the Meeting of the Melos. The Warriors, on the other hand, are coming off a loss after winning three games in a row for the first time this season.

The Warriors have won six of the past nine meetings, but more specifically, Curry has won 15 of 22 regular season meetings between himself and Lillard. The Blazers haven’t been a very trustworthy home team either, going just 6-9 against the spread at the Moda Center this season.

It’s a tough call, but the NBA pick to make here is definitely the Warriors’ moneyline, which is being offered at -115 NBA odds as of this writing. Golden State has also been a good bounce back team this season, going 9-6 ATS after a loss, including a 5-2 record in their last seven in that situation. The Dubs have also been strong against tough Western Conference competition, putting up a 10-7 ATS intraconference record this season.

Curry is also due for a big game. The Chef has fallen short of the 30-point threshold in three straight, matching the longest such streak for him this season. Not to mention that Curry has averaged 31.9 points in his 32 total matchups with Lillard and has averaged 27.8 points over 32 career games against Portland, his second-highest mark against any opponent.

The two-time NBA MVP has shot just 26 percent from downtown over this recent three-game downturn, and that’s a pretty long drought for a shooter of his caliber. We like Curry to emerge from his slump against a Blazers defense that has been allowing the sixth-most points per game this season (115.1), so go with the over on his 30.5 points prop at decent -125 odds.

One of our best bets for today is the over on Curry’s teammate Draymond Green’s 9.5 assists prop at passable -137 odds. Green has been doing his best impression of fellow Michigan State alumnus Magic Jordan recently, dropping jaw-dropping dimes off at an alarming rate last month. The power forward dished out 10+ assists—many of which were ‘Showtime’ caliber—in nine of 14 games in February.

And it’s really more like nine of 12 considering two of the games in which he didn’t meet the threshold were ones that he was unable to finish because of ejection or injury. Green averaged 12 assists across those dozen games in February, and he also handed out eight helpers in his last game against the Blazers, which was just his second game back after returning from injury.

Our final bet for this clash concerns Dame Time, and is one of our top picks for the day. This is an especially tasty wager because it serves as a good hedge against our other picks but is also a great bet even if Portland does lose as we expect: Lillard has poured in 32 and 40 points the last two times he’s lost to Curry in the regular season. The number on Lillard’s point prop—32.5—is a little bit steep, but at -110 odds we like Dame to come through for us on Wednesday night at home.

Just as Curry seems to crave matchups with Portland, Lillard always gets out of bed ready to play Golden State, averaging 29.1 points over 29 career games against them, his highest scoring rate against any opponent by a wide margin. Dame, again like Steph, is also due for a big game after scoring just 23 in his last outing: he has scored 30+ in nine of 11 games following a sub-30-point performance this year.

• Golden State is 9-6 ATS after a loss this season
• Steph Curry has averaged 31.9 points per game in matchups with Damian Lillard
• Draymond Green averaged 10.6 dimes in February
• Damian Lillard’s career average of 29.1 points against Golden State is his highest against any opponent