Free Picks: Boston Celtics vs. Utah Jazz

The Jazz won 20 of 21 games during a stretch in January and February, but since then have won just four of nine games. However, they remain 2.5 games clear atop the Western Conference and still boast the best record in the NBA, at 28-10. When a team like that is coming off a loss, you don’t want to be their next opponent. Unfortunately for the Boston Celtics, that’s exactly the position in which they will find themselves on Tuesday night.

In their last outing Utah lost to the Golden State Warriors, but the Jazz rarely stay down, only dropping back-to-back games twice so far this season. Despite their recent trouble to get results, the Jazz have been shooting that thang with absolutely no problem, topping the league with 17.4 made threes per game over the past month.

That’s actually higher than their league-leading 16.9 average for the season and works out well for this matchup with the Celtics. Though Boston has been a middle-of-the-pack team defending the perimeter for most of this season, over the past month they’ve given up the fourth-most triples per game (14.3) on the 11th-highest efficiency allowed.

Utah has shown an affinity for playing Eastern Conference teams, going 14-5 against the spread in those matchups this season. Boston is coming off a win, but they’ve gone just 7-12 ATS following a victory as they’ve struggled to find much consistency during this campaign.

We’re going to take the Utah Jazz NBA point spread for this contest, but we’ll buy it up to a much more palatable -3.5 points at -137 NBA odds. Utah has dominated this series lately, winning four of the past five ATS, including a 14-point triumph in their last meeting in early February.

Another of our top picks for this interconference showdown is the over on the game’s 227.5 total points prop at tasty -118 odds. We love this pick as one of our best bets for today because of the recent scoring trends for both teams. Five of Boston’s past seven games have gone over the total and ditto for five of Utah’s last six.

Over the past ten games, the Jazz have been scoring 119.4 points per game while giving up 113.4 and over the same stretch the C’s have been putting up 117.6 while allowing 115.3. I’m not much of a math whiz but I know that any combination of those averages would result in a number above our 227-point total.

Utah has scored 114+ points in 10 of their past 11 contests and Boston has held opponents to under 110 in just two of their past 10 games. The score has eclipsed the betting total in six of nine games following a Utah loss, and the over has been prevalent when Boston is the underdog too, hitting the mark in nine of 14 such games.

Our final NBA pick for what we hope will be a high-scoring three-point festival at the TD Garden on Tuesday is the over on Donovan Mitchell’s 25.5 points prop at acceptable -125 NBA odds. Spida has enjoyed spinning his webs against the East this season, putting up 26.7 in 19 games against that conference, and he’s also enjoyed Tuesday games, putting up 27.2 points per game on the second day of the week this season.

Boston has been a specifically lucrative matchup for Mitchell over the past couple of years as well. He’s gone 5-2 in games played between him and Tatum, scoring 28+ in three of the past four meetings, including a 36-point display in the meeting between these squads earlier this season. Spida is a creature of habit, which is why he’s been playing some of his best ball and averaging 26.5 points per game when he plays on a regular schedule of one days rest.

• Utah has won 15 of their past 17 games against Eastern Conference opponents
• The over is 13-7-1 when Utah plays a team on equal rest
• Following a Utah loss the under has gone 6-3 this season
• Donovan Mitchell has averaged 26.7 points per game against the Eastern Conference this season