Free Picks: Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers will head into Boston to take on the Celtics after falling to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last outing, a loss that dropped them to 24-12, a half-game behind their crosstown rivals for second in the Western Conference. The C’s, meanwhile, are riding high, entering the game on a two-game winning streak after back-to-back tight wins.

Boston will be encouraged by these consecutive triumphs, but considering how much they’ve struggled with consistency lately, they shouldn’t be jumping for joy, especially considering the second of those wins came by the slimmest of one-point margins against the Wiz, who aren’t exactly the class of the NBA despite their recent run of form.

The C’s actually hadn’t strung together two wins in over a month before that, and a win against the Clippers would give them just their second three-game winning streak of the season—but don’t expect that to happen. The Celtics might be without their second-best player in Jaylen Brown, and even if the 24-year-old did play, the Clippers have the wing stoppers on the perimeter to make life hell for Boston, which gets most if not all of its offensive production from its wings and backcourt.

Boston has also had a tough time against the Western Conference (5-6 against the spread) this season, while the Clippers have been much better against the Eastern Conference, going 9-6 ATS. The rarity with which the Celtics have stacked wins together this season mirrors L.A.’s relationship with losses: the Clippers have only lost back-to-back games once this season, which bodes well for their chances on Tuesday night.

Boston did beat the Clippers in their meeting in January, but considering Paul George and Brown were both missing in action, it doesn’t tell us much. The Clippers have gone 8-3 ATS after a loss and the Celtics have gone 6-10 ATS—including 0-7 ATS more recently—after a win during this campaign, both records that would suggest an NBA point spread play on L.A. would be the way to go here.

That suggestion would be correct, because our NBA pick is going to be the Clippers’ -2.5 point spread at very nice -111 odds. Their position as an away favorite also bodes well for L.A. bettors: this group has gone 9-5 ATS in that situation this season.

Another top pick for this showdown of 2020 playoff teams is a wager on the over for this game’s point total. I know what you’re thinking, Clippers games have failed to hit the over in six of seven, but all that means to an over junkie like me is that they’re due for a big offensive night, so let’s dive in with the over on the game’s 223 point total at decent -127 odds.

Unlike the Clippers, the Celtics have been on a bit of an over tear lately, hitting the total in five of their last seven outings. This matchup has also been historically high-scoring, with six of the past seven clashes—including a 234-point affair in January—going over and five of the past six meetings at the TD Garden doing the same. The Clippers have also hit the over at the seventh highest rate (57 percent) and scored at the sixth highest rate (114.9 points per game) this season, which is why saying their offense bouncing back on Tuesday isn’t that big of a leap.

• Boston is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
• Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS following a loss this season
• Los Angeles has hit the over at a 57 percent rate this season, good for 7th in the NBA
• The total has gone over in 5 of Boston’s past 7 games