Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
December 31st, 5:00pm, Capitol One Arena
This early evening game features two teams that came into the season with aspirations of big-time improvements, but who have instead won just one of their eight combined games so far this season. Both of these teams need to buckle down and start playing some smarter basketball real fast (especially with the shortened schedule) if they want to make it into the Eastern Conference playoff, and we believe this will yield a low-scoring game between the two struggling squads.
Sports betting site 22Bet is putting the OVER/UNDER total for this game at a sky-high 234.5 points, so we suggest hammering the under, which is currently sitting at beautiful -107 odds. The UNDER has hit 19 of the past 26 meetings between these two teams in D.C., and the total has also gone UNDER in four straight games for the Bulls in games following an against the spread win. To further our point, the Bulls and the Wizards have only participated in one game apiece that has had more than 235 points this season.
Pick: Game Total Points Under 234.5 Points (-107, 22Bet)
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
December 31st, 7:30pm, Amalie Arena
The Raptors are listed as the home team for their New Year’s Eve clash with the Knicks, but they are not really playing at home: COVID restrictions have forced Canada’s only NBA team to relocate to Tampa Bay for the first half of the season. Of course, this is not the reason they have started the season 0-3, that’s due to their play. But the combination of playing “at home” when you’re really across the continent from your fans paired with a woeful start to the season (especially in the half court offense) will certainly have the Raptors angry—and that’s why we like them.
When Kyle Lowry and the Raptors are angry and have their backs against the wall—like they did during last season’s playoffs—they’ve shown that they can deliver a big performance when they need it the most. The Raptors have had a lot of recent success against the Knickerbockers, going 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings. The Knicks have also dropped seven straight against the spread when they play the Raps away from MSG. As Lowry said earlier this week, “[The Raptors} don’t have time to waste no more, we’re 0-3 and we need a win really, really bad.” We believe Toronto will head into 2021 not only with a win, but a win against the spread.
Pick: Toronto Raptors -8.5 Point Spread (-115, 22Bet)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
December 31st, 8:00pm, Chesapeake Energy Arena
There’s this misconception around the NBA world that when tired teams—that is, those playing on the final legs of back-to-backs, two-in-threes, or three-in-fours—are more likely to score less because they are too exhausted to get shots. In fact, it’s the opposite that is true: when teams are tired, they slack on their defensive assignments, not on their scoring chances. TheSportsGeek.com tried out a model that bet the over in which games featured two teams that were both in the final leg of either a three-in-four or three-in-four stretch of games and they found a 59% success rate. When it comes to consistent betting strategies, that’s about as good as it gets.
If you hadn’t already guessed, this particular New Year’s Eve matchup is one such matchup, in which the 2-2 Pelicans, who are playing their third game in five days, will be visiting the 1-2 Thunder, who are playing their third game in four days. So, safe to say, we’re taking the Game Total Points Over 214.5 at -109 odds on 22Bet. To help our case, the numbers say that OKC games have gone OVER the total seven of their last eight home games. True, the Pelicans have yet to have a game reach the 215 mark, but each of the Thunder’s three games has surpassed that milestone. Indeed, we shall see if our fatigue=big points theory pans out this week.
Pick: Game Total Points Over 214.5 (-109, 22Bet)
We managed to escape a wacky first week of the 2020-2021 NBA season with a perfect 3-0 parlay that paid out quite nicely, so cheers to anyone who tailed. Hopefully we helped make it a merry Christmas for many NBA bettors, and we’ll look to do the same for your New Year’s Eve with our Week 2 NBA Parlay. If our fatigue theory holds in the Pelicans vs. Thunder matchup, the Bulls and Wizards follow the trends and keep the scoring to a minimum, and the Raptors rediscover their pride with an ATS win over the upstart Knicks, we should be laughing all the way to the bank REAL early in 2021. Godspeed and good luck. Let’s get this bread.
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