Free Picks: The Bobcats Look To Prey On The Bluejays

Jason Preston who averaged only 2PPG in his Senior Year of High School is the leader of the Ohio Bobcats and is the perfect poster boy for March’s Cinderella Story. After taking down the defending National Champions, the Cats now turn their attention to the Creighton Blue Jays who barely survived against a plucky UC Santa Barbara team in the Round of 64.

Preston and Ohio were not supposed to be here, they finished 5th in the Metro Athletic Conference, but entered their conference tournament on fire after a Covid-19 pause. They have won 10 of their last 11 games, they have 5 double-digit scorers and they are incredibly efficient. Their effective field goal percentage is 55.5% (14th in the country), they take 41.4% of their shots from in the paint and they shoot 36.3% from three.

However, Ohio’s recent string of success has largely come from improved perimeter defense. While the offense has been there all season, the defense has been amped up as the season reached the home stretch. In their last 7 games, Ohio has held their opponents to 28.2% from beyond the arc. Creighton’s offense has struggled of late. Aside from smoking Butler twice, in four of their last six games the Blue Jays have not eclipsed 70 points and falling below 65 points on three occasions.

Creighton could also run into trouble on the glass, Ohio’s rebounding margin is +1.6 but recently they have been much better, including outrebounding Virginia 38-29. Creighton’s rebounding margin is -0.6, which gives another edge to these Cats. If Ohio can get some extra possessions through offensive rebounding they will beat their over of 71.5. One of my free picks is take the over on Ohio points (-118 Bet10).

NCAAB odds have Creighton set as a medium favourite at 5.5 points, they are truly teasing bettors to bet the favourite, but I believe in Cinderella and Madness. We will be taking Ohio +5.5, as this will be a close game that will come down to the wire. I would personally have this line closer to Creighton being two point favourites and at five and a half, I see significant value in Ohio. My BetPicks best bet is the Ohio spread.

• The Over has cashed in 13 of Creighton’s 29 games this season
• Creighton is 11-15-0 ATS as favourites this season
• The Over has cashed in 12 of Ohio’s 22 games this season
• Ohio is 6-2-0 ATS as underdogs this season