North Carolina Tar Heels (-11.5) (-109) @ Duke Blue Devils
November 7th, 12:00pm, Wallace Wade Stadium
This isn’t quite the marquee rivalry matchup that it is on the basketball court, but the Tar Heels are offering some great value here against a Duke team that oddsmakers may be overly high on because of a big 53-point effort last week against Charlotte. However, they did that mostly on the ground, where they gained nearly 300 yards against the 49ers. Conversely, the Tar Heels are allowing the fifth-fewest rush yards per game in the ACC.
A more stout defense will mean that Blue Devils head coach David Cutliffe will need to rely more on his quarterback, erratic junior Chase Brice. So far this season, Brice has put up just eight total touchdowns against 15 turnovers, numbers that will have Tar Heel defenders licking their chops.
The Tar Heels are coming off a 44-41 loss to Virginia as favorites last week, but bettors should take solace in the fact that Mack Brown’s teams have been great following defeats since his return to Chapel Hill, going 5-2 in such situations. Though results last week would suggest otherwise, these teams are not all that competitive this season, so add a strong bounce back performance from UNC to the parlay here.
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -11.5 (-109) (888sport).
Kansas Jayhawks @ #19 Oklahoma Sooners (-37.5) (-112)
November 7th, 3:30pm, OU Memorial Stadium
The 0-6 Jayhawks have just been bad this year, there’s no two ways about it. They have been simply awful, losing by an average of 33 points per game during conference play this season. It has been pitiful to watch as they allow the fifth-most points per game in the entirety of the FBS. Kansas is so bad that the Sooners are getting nearly 38 points in a Big 12 matchup, something you don’t often see. Usually, a spread that high means you’ve got to take the points, but Oklahoma’s recent dominance in this matchup gave us pause.
In the five contests between these teams since Lincoln Riley began calling the offensive shots in Norman, the Sooners have been scoring 51.8 points all by themselves. The over/under total for this game is set at just 63 on most sports betting sites, and with the matchup producing 66.4 total points over the past five, it seems like a good bet, especially since this may be one of the worst Jayhawks teams in recent memory.
The Jayhawks have not only lost every one of their six games this season, they have also failed to cover the spread in each and every one of those outings as well. The Sooners need to start making statements if they expect to take a run at the Playoff with two losses already on their record, and Kansas is the perfect team to beat up on to get back on track.
Pick: Game Total Points Over 63 (-112) (888sport).
#14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-12) (-112) @ Kansas State Wildcats
November 7th, 4:00pm, Bill Snyder Family Stadium
This matchup features two teams that fell short for us last week in the Cowboys and WIldcats. Well, one of them has to get themselves back in the win column here, and the odds are heavily favoring the no. 14 Cowboys, who are coming off an embarrassing overtime loss to the unranked Texas Longhorns. The Wildcats, for their part, were underdogs last week, but they still didn’t represent themselves very well in an embarrassing 37-10 loss.
The Wildcats were dealing with one of, if not the best defense in the NCAA last week in West Virginia, however, and while the Cowboys have a solid defense too, it’s clearly beatable as the Longhorns proved time and again last week. Kansas State is also a perfect 8-0 against the spread in their last eight contests after allowing 280+ passing yards (as they did to West Virginia) and they’re 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a blowout loss of 20+ points as well.
Not only that, but the Cowboys have really struggled to cover the spread in this matchup of late: they’re 2-7 ATS in the last seven meetings, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings in Manhattan, and the underdog has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams. 12.5 points is simply too much to be giving to Oklahoma State against a quality Kansas State team like this, we don’t necessarily expect a Wildcats win, but that wouldn’t shock us.
Pick: Kansas State Wildcats +12 (-109) (888sport)
Just like the Tar Heels we’ll be hoping for a bounce back performance this Saturday. This week our parlay includes a value play in Durham for the Tar Heels, a 63-point total in Norman that the Sooners may just eclipse on their own, and a 12-point spread in a Big 12 matchup that the Wildcats should have no problem covering, if not winning outright.
