Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats (-17.0) (-120) (Betway)
November 14th, 12:00pm EST, Commonwealth Stadium Kentucky
The 2-4 Wildcats come in as huge favorites here, and for good reason, they will most likely emerge victorious from this clash. However, there’s no way an offense as porous as Kentucky’s should be getting 17 points, even against an 0-5 outfit like Vanderbilt. The Wildcats haven’t even been able to manage 300 yards a game so far this season, sitting in dead last in the SEC with just 294.7 of offense per game, nearly 25 yards fewer than the next worst team. They’ve also managed a total of just 13 points in their last two games, which makes taking Vandy and the 17 points all the more intriguing.
The Commodores are no stranger to big spreads against them, having come into all five games as underdogs of 14 points or more. That winless record is slightly misleading, however. Despite averaging an SEC-worst 12.4 points per game through five games, Vandy has actually been producing a lot of offense of late, with 421 yards a couple of weeks ago against Ole Miss before putting up 478 yards in a 24-17 loss to Mississippi State last week.
The problem for the Commodores has been their cavalier attitude with the ball, which led to five turnovers last week that ultimately cost them the game against the Bulldogs, so if they can clean that up, they’ve got a great shot here. Vanderbilt has gone 8-2 ATS in their last ten games playing as a double-digit underdog on the road, with a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five outings in that situation. Kentucky should have no problem winning, but 17 points simply gives Vanderbilt too much value to pass up for our parlay.
Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores Point Spread (+17.0) (+100) (Betway)
No. 9 Miami Hurricanes @ Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.0) (-111) (Betway)
November 14th, 12:00pm EST, Lane Stadium
Whenever you see an unranked team favored over a ranked one, much less one in the top 10, you’ve got to take a closer look. Upon closer examination, we’ve determined that we’ve found ourselves the most likely upset of the NCAA’s Week 11 slate. The 6-1 Hurricanes are ranked number nine in the country, but the Hokies are somehow sitting as two-point favorites in this one on most sports betting sites.
Miami is coming off a 44-41 win over NC State last week that was probably closer than they would’ve liked, but the ‘Canes were missing a few key players. No matter, because D’Eriq King proved that he was the best player on the field, accounting for 535 yards and five touchdowns in the win. King will once again be the best player out there when the Hokies and ‘Canes meet at Lane Stadium on Saturday, so if he can answer the bell Miami should be good to go for an upset.
Virginia Tech has lost three of its last five contests including a 38-35 loss to Liberty in front of the home crowd last week as double-digit favorites. That wasn’t the first time the Hokies lost outright after coming in as double-digit chalk either, so while this spread may seem like a head-scratcher, we suggest you stop thinking about it, take the insane value Miami’s offering, and move on.
Pick: Miami Hurricanes Moneyline (+105)
Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5) (-111) (Betway) @ Michigan Wolverines
November 14th, 7:30pm EST, Michigan Stadium
The Badgers last played on October 23rd, when they completely took Illinois apart in a 45-7 victory. They’re back now, though their final roster is still up in the air somewhat due to health issues. As of now, though, they are on track to head to Ann Arbor on Saturday to visit the floundering Wolverines, who fell to 1-2 after their second straight embarrassing defeat last week, this time to 38-21 to Indiana.
Jim Harbaugh and his team have often looked out of sorts this season, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, and losing the battle for Michigan to the seemingly far inferior Spartans a couple of weeks ago surely didn’t fill anyone in the program with pride or hope. Meanwhile, the Badgers have been chomping at the bit to get back out on the field after having put up a 40-burger in their season opener, the type of performance after which the Badgers have covered the spread in four straight.
Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst is 0-2 at Michigan Stadium, but surely he has taken heart in witnessing the many struggles of the Wolverines over the past two weeks. The Badgers have owned this matchup recently, putting up a 10-2-1 record ATS in the last 13 contests between these squads. The team that is favored, as Wisconsin is here, has also covered in five of the last six meetings.
Pick: Wisconsin Badgers Point Spread (-4.5) (-111) (Betway)
In Week 11 we’ve got sports betting sites giving far too many points to a sneakily decent Vandy program, a shocking underdog moneyline for the Hurricanes that was simply too valuable to pass up, and a Badgers team that will come back from a couple of weeks off to turn the heat on Harbaugh’s seat in Ann Arbor to HIGH.
