Navy Midshipmen @ Army Black Knights (-7) (-109) (888sport)
December 12th, 3:00pm, Michie Stadium
There’s something about that Commander-In-Chief Trophy that just summons the best out of those service academies, especially defensively, which is why betting the under on Navy vs. Army this weekend is a shoo-in to kick off our parlay. Granted, the 38-point over/under number betting sites are giving us is very low, but there have been 38 points or less scored in seven of the past eight contests between these two academies, and in the eighth there were only 41 points scored.
In fact, when it comes to this game, the numbers are almost absurd. 15 of the past 17 showdowns between the Midshipmen and the Black Knightshave gone under the total, including ten straight dating back to 2010. Another number strengthening our case here is the under’s performance when Navy visits Army: the under has hit the last nine times in a row that the Midshipmen have come to play at West Point.
According to Action Network, the under has gone 36-9-1 since 2005 in games featuring two of the three service academies. We haven’t had much luck with unders lately, and by golly if this one doesn’t pan out for us on Saturday, it could be the last time you see me rooting on an under for a while, because this seems as tight a lock as you can get.
Pick: Game Total Points Under (38) (-110) (888sport)
No. 17 UNC Tar Heels @ No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
December 12th, 3:30pm, Hard Rock Stadium
The 2020 edition of this classic matchup is bound to be a good one with two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the ACC, UNC’s Sam Howell and Miami’s D’Eriq King, going toe to toe. With the ACC’s top two teams, Notre Dame and Clemson, most likely headed for the College Football Playoff, 8-1 Miami has a real shot at an invite to the Orange Bowl. What that means for us as bettors is that the ‘Canes have a lot more to play for than the 7-3 Heels, so you can expect Miami to bring out all the stops on Saturday. The home team’s 7-1 record against the spread in the last eight meetings between these programs should also give us ‘Canes bettors solace here.
King has shown himself to be one of the better mobile quarterbacks in the NCAA this season, and UNC has struggled against offenses led by dual threats similar to King such as Hendon Hooker at Virginia Tech (45 points), Ian Book at Notre Dame (31 points, loss), and Brennan Armstrong at Virginia (44 points, loss). The Heels also gave up 53 points and 429 passing yards to Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, and King is better than all of those guys with the exception of Book.
The Heels defense has had a problem with mobile quarterbacks as well as the overall passing game, and that’s Miami’s bread and butter. Most of that bread has been buttered by King, who has lit up opponents to the tune of 2,334 yards and 20 touchdowns through the air this year. Expect King and the Hurricanes offense to be back in the kitchen with their butter knives at the ready on Saturday. Miami’s strong pass rush (17th in the nation with 26 sacks in nine games) could also cause big problems for UNC’s suspect offensive line (2.90 sacks allowed per game, 23rd most).
Pick: Miami Hurricanes Point Spread (-3) (-113) (888sport)
No. 15 USC Trojans (-3) (-113) (888sport) @ UCLA Bruins
December 12th, 7:30pm, Rose Bowl
Much like with the Hurricanes, the 4-0 Trojans will take on a 3-2 Bruins team that has much less to play for than them, and we’re firing up the slight favorites again. With its unblemished record, USC has a chance to make it to the Pac-12 title game with a win on Saturday in the conference’s final weekend of regular season action.
The Bruins have stacked a couple of wins in a row over Arizona and Arizona State, but neither of those teams has won a game yet and they average only 213.0 and 205.5 passing yards per game, respectively. UCLA’s defense has a whole other thing coming at them on Saturday as the best signal caller in the conference, Kedon Slovis, leads an offense that puts up 313.0 yards per game through the air into Pasadena.
Last season, Slovis sliced and diced his way to 515 yards and four touchdown passes in USC’s big win over the Bruins, and going up against a UCLA secondary that’s giving up the fifth-most passing yards in the conference means it should be smooth sailing for Kedon and company again. The Trojans have won four of the last five meetings between these programs, and they’ll look to push that to five of the last six as they attempt to notch their first 5-0 record since 2006 when Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart (now staple pundits for Fox’s NCAA football coverage) were still roaming the Coliseum grounds. So, yeah, it’s been a while for the Trojans.
Pick: USC Trojans Point Spread (-3) (-113) (888sport)
After a few weeks looking for big-time covers, we decided to mix it up a bit this week, sticking with favorites, but this time going with ones that are a little less chalky. If Navy and Army get up to their usual ways, the Hurricanes stave off the Tar Heels, and the Trojans charge over the Bruins, we should be some happy campers come Saturday night. Godspeed, and may the odds be ever in our favor.
