New Orleans Saints (-3) (+155) @ Atlanta Falcons
December 6th, 1:00pm, Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Both of these teams are coming off games where they made a mockery of their opponents. I would never argue that the Atlanta Falcons are in the same league as the New Orleans Saints, but I like the value this week on the Moneyline for the Dirty Birds to take down their NFC South rivals for the second time this season.
The Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, as they rank second-last in yards per game allowed at 291.5, but I don’t expect the Saints to take advantage of this because Taysom Hill is under center, not Drew Brees.
It’s a well-known fact by now that the passing game in New Orleans has dwindled since Drew Brees was placed on injured reserve a few weeks back. If Brees were playing, along with a now-healthy Michael Thomas, I’d bank on them to make mincemeat of Atlanta’s putrid secondary, but the all-start wideout was only able to muster 50 yards last week against the Denver Broncos with Hill under center.
The Saints are relying more on the running game, but the Falcons are good at defending the run allowing just 100.3 yards per game.
The Falcons have already beaten the Saints this season, and that was on the road with Brees and Alvin Kamara wreaking havoc. This week at home, the Falcons sweep their season series against their long-time rivals.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+155) (888sport)
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (54) (-110)
December 6th, 1:00pm, Nissan Stadium
The Cleveland Browns are 8-3. I’m not sure how, but they’ve managed to find themselves in playoff contention here in Week 13 but now prepare the Tennessee Titans, who just had a killer outing against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are volatile and can score tons of points, which I’m banking on when these teams meet this weekend.
The OVER has cashed in five of their last six meetings and nine of Tennessee’s last 12 games at home.
I’m not particularly enamored with either of these teams, as they’ve both been underwhelming at different points throughout the season. Still, for the most part, they can both score points, as the Titans are ranked sixth overall in points per game at 29.5, and the Browns generate the most offense on the ground as they average 161.4 yards per contest. I expect both Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry to hit pay-dirt multiple times and make this game a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Game Total Points Over 54 (-110) (888sport)
New England Patriots (-12) (-112) @ Los Angeles Chargers
December 6th, 4:25pm, SoFi Stadium
The Los Angeles Chargers have always been a tough team to figure out. Sometimes they look fantastic, and at other times they put up duds, but they have fallen victim to some bad luck as well. Apart from their Week 12 loss to the Buffalo Bills, every loss this season has been within one score, so their record might not truly reflect their abilities. Their offense has been decent for the most part, as they’re averaging 25.2 points per game.
The New England Patriots, on the other hand, have struggled since Cam Newton took over from Tom Brady at quarterback for 2020 and currently rank 27th in points scored per game at just 20.8. Apart from their game against the New York Jets in Week 9, they haven’t eclipsed 30 points in a single game since Week 3.
The UNDER has cashed in six of New England’s last eight games this season and five of the Charger’s previous seven games against the Patriots. Justin Herbert put up a dud last week against the Bills, so I expect him to take his anger out on the Patriots, but I don’t expect them to reciprocate.
Pick: Game Total Points Under 48.5 (-110) (888sport)
We’re going in strong for Week 13. For this week’s parlay, I got the Falcons sweeping the season series against Taysom Hill’s run-heavy Saints, the Titans and the Browns beating each other senseless in a high-scoring game, and a modest scoring output from the Patriots and the Chargers.
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