Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5) (-115)
December 25th, 4:30pm, Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Last week, I predicted that New Orleans would bounce back with a home victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, which was clearly a mistake. The Chiefs are the best team in football. Period.
On Christmas day, the Saints have a home date with the Minnesota Vikings, who are in the playoff hunt. They have a far outside shot at making it this year, but anything can still happen in the next two games, so the Vikings will be locked and loaded.
The Saints are known for their potent offense, and Drew Brees is back, but Michael Thomas was recently placed on the injured reserve, so they’ll have to make do without their top wide receiver, yet again.
Both teams have been reliable when it comes to scoring, as the OVER has cashed in 9 of each team’s 14 games played this season. The Vikings’ offense is run-heavy, but New Orleans has one of the best run defenses allowing just 95.6 rushing yards per game.
The Saints are definitely a better team than the Vikings, but I don’t think that oddsmakers are giving them enough credit. The Saints’ defense may stifle the Vikings, especially at the Superdome, but 888sport offers good value on the Vikings scoring OVER 10.5 first-half points, and with a playoff spot on the line, the Vikings might just score a couple before halftime.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings To Score More Than 10.5 First Half Points (+102) (888sport)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions (+9) (-112)
December 26th, 1:00pm, Ford Field
The Detroit Lions had yet another underwhelming season and have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Buccaneers are striving to knock off the New Orleans Saints from the top spot in their division.
The Lions were obliterated by the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, but they did manage to score 25 points. Matthew Stafford has had more liberties under center since head coach Matt Patricia’s firing earlier this season, so I expect the Lions to do more of the same in a Week 16 home matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are probably the most annoying team this season, as the media and casual fans alike seem to be falling in and out of love with them every week, which is understandable given their preseason hype and the tumultuous season they’ve ended having. They performed an admirable comeback last week against the Atlanta Falcons, but let’s not forget that the Atlanta Falcons are the biggest chokers in all of sports.
Nevertheless, the Buccaneers offense will do its thing against a dismal Lions defense that’s allowing the most points per game at 31.1, but the Lions will also score enough points to make this game worth watching. It’s also worth noting that the OVER has cashed in 16 of Tampa Bay’s last 29 games against an NFC opponent. Fire up the OVER on this one.
Pick: Game Total Points Over 53.5 (-109) (888sport)
Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-110) @ Las Vegas Raiders
December 26th, 8:15pm, Allegiant Stadium
I’ve been burned by the Las Vegas Raiders in these parlays for two games straight. For whatever reason, this team cannot seem to get it together.
Derek Carr left last week’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers with an injury to make matters worse, forcing Marcus Mariota to step in. He played alright, but it’s nothing to write home about considering how mediocre the Chargers defense has been.
The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, are on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2016 and look pretty good. Their defense has been outstanding, limiting opponents to just 18.4 points per game. Tua Tagovailoa has been competent thus far and should have a good game against Las Vegas’ terrible secondary.
The Raiders still have a slim chance at makings the playoffs, but their matchup against the Dolphins will be no cakewalk, even at home. The Dolphins have a serious edge in their last ten meetings with the Raiders, going 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS. Las Vegas has covered the spread just once in their previous five games, and I don’t expect them to do it against Miami this weekend.
Pick: Miami Dolphins To Win By More Than -2.5 (-110)
For Week 16, the Dolphins will cover the spread on the road against the Raiders. We also like the Minnesota Vikings to score a couple of touchdowns in the first half as they desperately try to make the playoffs, and the Bucs will join the Lions in Detroit for a Week 16 shootout.
Three for three is on the way!
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