Free Picks: Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers has led the Green Bay Packers to a 7-2 record, which is good enough for the lead in the NFC North, while the Indianapolis Colts have surprised many by going 6-3 through the first ten weeks of the season.  Even though they have the better record, Betway has the Packers as -2.5 road underdogs. (-111).

Before I begin, I would like to acknowledge that the Indianapolis Colts are to be respected.  Not many people expected much out of them this year, but they’ve done well enough to give the Tennessee Titans a close race for the AFC South crown, as they own a 6-3 record.

With that being said, I find it surprising that oddsmakers are favouring the Colts in this game against the 7-2 Packers who are generally regarded as Super Bowl contenders.  The Colts defense is the most likely suspect for the way oddsmakers are thinking.  They rank fourth in opponent points and touchdowns allowed and per game.

Oddsmakers must be thinking that this defense will be strong enough to force Aaron Rodgers into making some mistakes like Tampa Bay did back in Week 6 when they sacked him four times and intercepted his passes twice.

The difference between Tampa Bay and Indianapolis though, is that the Buccaneers routinely play against great teams, while the Colts have yet to win against one (unless you count the Titans).  Although, they have managed to beat every NFC North opponent this season and will be looking to complete the divisional sweep against the Packers.

That counts for something, and Philip Rivers has been decent as a game-manager at this point in his career, but as great as the Colts’ defense has been, I just don’t see them containing Aaron Rodgers enough to beat them this weekend.  I think it’ll be a close game, but the Packers will come out on top.   

• Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
• Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
• Indianapolis is 6-2 in their last 8 games
• The UNDER has cashed in 4 of Indianapolis’ last 5 games at home