Free Picks: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche

Two of the top defensive teams will get another opportunity to flex their muscles Saturday afternoon. In an outdoor game on Lake Tahoe, the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights jostle for position in the standings. Widely regarded as highly-structured defensively, will goals be limited in this special contest, or will the floodgates be open?

This isn’t your normal matinee matchup. The hockey world will be watching as the Golden Knights and Avalanche play on Lake Tahoe. Playing outside is always a thrill, but this will be a contest like no other.

When placing a wager on a game like this, you need to look at history to make an educated bet. And by history, I mean outdoor games and their results.

We have a ton of data between Colorado and Vegas already. Being outdoors changes the entire complexion of this game. The current o/u for this contest is 5 at 888Sport and 5.5 for Betway and 10Bet. Looking at past outdoor games, the majority of games have been over 5 goals.

With that being said, I am not sold on this game hitting the over. Colorado and Vegas own two amazing defenses. Both squads rank in the top 3 in goals against. These teams have only met twice this season and have both been low-scoring. It’s been a struggle to score goals for either team, which makes this contest all the more interesting.

I have to go with my gut. The numbers are saying this will be a low-scoring game and I need to roll with that. Vegas and Colorado play lockdown defense and I expect the same on Saturday afternoon. Colorado and Vegas’ defense have impacted regular season odds and especially the o/u in total goals.   

Weather doesn’t normally impact hockey games but this is different. There should be periods of light snow and heavy winds in the early morning. Right now, it doesn’t appear as if snow will impact the game. If it does, expect the weather to play a huge factor in this one. If snow accumulates more than usual on the ice, that will lead to less scoring.

The NHL reported that sightlines will not be impacted by the sun, so goaltenders should have no fear in having to battle the puck as well as glare.

I love betting the over on BetPicks, but these teams are defensive juggernauts. I need to trust that we see another tight, defensive game on Saturday.

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas’ last 5 games.
• Vegas averages 2.10 goals against Colorado in last 10 games.
• The under has cashed in 6 of the last 9 games for Colorado.
• The Avalanche are 6-3-1 against Vegas in last 10.