Free Picks: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Dallas Stars

Every time the Dallas Stars have taken the ice against Carolina this season, it has resulted in a loss. With much to prove Saturday night, I take a look at Dallas’ offensive talents but critical defensive woes. In this prediction, I dive into Carolina’s efficiency against Dallas and how the Stars’ offense isn’t as terrible as one may believe.

In 4 games this season, the Hurricanes have walked away victorious against Dallas on every occasion. Carolina has cemented themselves as one of the top teams in the division and Dallas has learned first-hand how strong the Hurricanes are.

With a date set for Saturday evening, the Stars look to end their regular-season losing skid against Carolina.

Dallas has struggled on offense this season, to no one’s surprise. A number of key players are missing from the lineup and no one has stepped up to make a huge splash for the Stars. This knowledge already has me formulating my NHL pick for this contest.

There are two things that Carolina and Dallas both do well: defense. The Stars and Canes do a tremendous job in keeping the opposition from scoring. The only difference is that Carolina also has the backing of their offense. The Canes are ranked 9th in total goals, while the Stars are dreadful at 24th.

In previous meetings between the Hurricanes and Stars, Dallas has struggled to provide any offense (on paper).  The Stars have tallied just 10 goals in 4 games. One interesting thing is that the Starts have scored 3 goals in 75% of games against Carolina. So while the Stars have struggled to score all season, they have provided decent offense against the Canes.

For this free NHL prediction, I want to focus on total goals. Even with Dallas scoring 3 goals against Carolina on separate occasions, I have to go with my gut instinct. I have been burned before by not trusting myself. Sometimes, you look at every statistic and analysis to persuade yourself into a different option.

I think taking the under is the best NHL bet you can make for this game. Carolina’s defense locks down opposing offenses. Sure, Dallas has scored against Carolina in previous instances, but there is a reason the Stars’ offense is ranked so low.

• The under has cashed in 8 of Dallas’ last 10 on the road.
• The total has gone under in 6 of Dallas’ last 8 games as the underdog.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Carolina’s last 6 games as the favorite.
• Dallas and Carolina combine for 5.60 goals per game in last 10.