Free Picks: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames

Under the microscope of the NHL, Toronto has lost a number of games in recent weeks. Desperate to find the win column, they take on Calgary Friday night. For this NHL pick, I focus on total goals once again. Calgary and Toronto are deadly in a certain period, which has me thinking we’ll see the over in total goals in a specific frame.

It’s a new era in Calgary. Darryl Sutter has taken over the bench boss duties in Calgary, coaching the squad to a 3-2-1 record under him so far. Sutter’s biggest test of the season is upcoming when the Flames take on the leading Toronto Maple Leafs.

Toronto strolls into this contest the leading team in the North Division, but have currently lost their last two games. The Leafs fell to Winnipeg before losing to the lowly Senators a day later. In their last 6 games, Toronto has picked up just 1 victory.

So how will they fare against the Calgary Flames? Well, head-to-head, Toronto is 3-1-0 on the season. That winning percentage has affected NHL regular season odds, as the Leafs enter this game as favorites – despite being on a skid.

For this free NHL pick, I want to focus on total goals. The reason being is that I know Toronto will eventually heat up again, but I just don’t know if that will happen against Calgary. I think focusing on the over/under will be one of the best NHL bets you can make.

I want to dive deeper into total goals, focusing on the 2nd period. Toronto and Calgary do absolute damage in the second frame. A key to their success is that the second period has helped them take the lead entering the third and final frame.

Friday night, I think we see Calgary and Toronto light up the second period with goals, like they have all season. The Maple Leafs have scored 37 of their 102 goals in the second period. They have also racked up 340 shots in the second frame, by far the most of any period for the Maple Leafs.

Calgary is a 2nd-period team as well. The Flames have scored 33 of their 83 goals in the second period, which is their highest-scoring period. Like the Maple Leafs, Calgary is also shooting the puck more in the second frame.

The total goals for the second period is low, sitting at only 1.5. I think taking the over in 2nd-period goals is a no-brainer.

• Toronto has scored 36% of all goals in the second period.
• The Maple Leafs have tallied 34% of all shots in the second frame.
• Calgary has scored 40% of all goals in the second period.
• The Flames and Maple Leafs have combined for 658 shots in the second period.