Free Picks: Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

After a hot start to the season, Dallas has fallen off. But an opportunity arises for the Stars. Facing the Tampa Bay Lightning, can Dallas and Tampa Bay work together to hit the over in total goals? Head-to-head, these meetings have featured tons of offense from one team. In order for the over hit, we’ll need to see huge offensive games from both the Lightning and Stars.

In every game this season that the Dallas Stars have played against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Stars have taken the L. With another opportunity on the horizon, Dallas looks to end their three-game skid against the reigning Stanley Cup champions.

Tampa Bay has won 4 straight games in the regular season and looks to add another W to the win column. As for the Stars, they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are trying to stay afloat this season.

While Dallas has not been a high-scoring team, they have done a solid job in keeping the puck out of the net. The Stars rank 6th in goals against with 75. Their offense is lacking, but that is expected with key players like Tyler Seguin sidelined with injury.

For this free pick and prediction, I want to focus on total goals. I think the over/under of 5.5 is the perfect combination of value and probability. In three games this season, the two teams have combined for 14 goals – or 4.66 goals per game.

Even with that knowledge, I still think taking the over is the best move in this game. The biggest reason being is that in 2 of 3 contests, the Stars have been shut out by the Lightning. Now, that may entice you to take the under because of Dallas’ lack of scoring ability, but the Stars were snake bitten in previous contests.

The Stars scored 3 goals in their last game against Tampa Bay, so Dallas has already cracked the code once against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay has more games played this season with 3 or more team goals than 2 or less team goals. If you take away Dallas’ 2 shutout losses to the Lightning, the Stars are also scoring above 3 goals per game.

I still think taking the over in this game is the best NHL bet you can make. With Tampa Bay’s proven firepower, coupled with Dallas’ promising offense, I am betting on the over.

• The total has gone over in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 10 games.
• The Lightning have averaged 3.10 goals per game against Dallas in last 10 meetings.
• The total has gone over in 6 of Dallas’ last 9 games.
• The over has hit in 5 straight games for Dallas at home.